Thursday, May 22, 2008

Earthquake Prediction

It has been more than one week since the earthquake devastated Sichuan, China on May 12, 2008. I'm still searching and reading the news on the earthquake constantly. Am I having PMS right now?

I found an article on Wikipedia titled 2008 Sichuan Earthquake. It mentioned two academic studies that predicted possibility of a big earthquake in Sichuan in 2008. One study published in 2002 in a Chinese seismology journal "Recent Developments in World Seismology" analyzed the frequency and intervals of earthquakes happened in Sichuan since 1800 and concluded that
"Beginning with 2003 we should pay more attention to the possibility of an earthquake of M ≥7.0 occurring in Sichuan Province"

The other study published in "Journal of Catastrophology" in Chinese in 2006 analyzed all the M>6.7 earthquakes in Sichuan and Yunan region and found the trend that every 25 years a M≥6.7 earthquake would occur in the region. The article predicts that the Sichuan-Yunnan region may experience a M≥6.7 earthquake in 2008!!!!!

Note: The links to the full articles are embedded in the text.

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